Saturday, July 31, 2010
Hyperinflation Nation. More Smart people agreeing.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Daily Reckoning Stock Picks
By Chris Mayer
"President Obama said he would've fired Lloyd Blankfein, the head of Goldman Sachs, if he worked for the White House... Unfortunately, the White House works for Goldman Sachs." - from my presentation at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium.
I'm back from the Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver. As usual, this great event offered a diverse mix of ideas. Doom seemed to prevail often enough, with many speakers calling for a healthy drop in the stock market and challenging economic times ahead. Even so, there was plenty of enthusiasm for certain ideas. More about which, below...
One of the pleasures of being in Vancouver is getting The Globe and Mail delivered to your room every morning. It's a good paper, and with Canada's resource-based economy, it tends to carry worthy stories on what's happening in the resource sector. More than a few caught my eye, as they covered areas I've been watching of late.
For instance, there was a story about how Canadian companies are becoming increasingly active in Colombia. There has been something of a resource boom down there, as the country enjoys some stability. There are 17 listed Canadian companies with a presence in Colombia. The lure is the untapped oil reserves. There hasn't been much exploration in 50 years. Already, Colombia is the third-largest South American producer of oil after Venezuela and Brazil. Oil is its biggest export.
I have a Colombian oil company I've been researching as a possible recommendation. Either way, I'll share with you what I've learned about the opportunities unfolding in Colombia.
There was another fascinating story about how Canada ships more and more of its oil to Asia, in particular China. Currently, one ship leaves every month carrying 600,000 barrels of crude oil. That's a trickle, but Canada's two biggest pipeline companies are looking to lay pipe and ship massive amounts of oil to Vancouver, en route ultimately to China.
The appeal of Canada's oil sands has improved mightily over just the last 12 months. For one thing, the troubles in the Gulf and deep-water drilling make land sources of oil look a lot less risky. Secondly, China's appetite for crude oil continues to grow. (Last week, the IEA reported China is now the world's largest energy user, surpassing the US.) And now this: new pipelines.
The pipelines do two things. One, they lessen Canada's dependence on the US, which has been murmuring about greenhouse gas legislation. Such legislation would make it more difficult for Canada's oil sands to find buyers in the US. Secondly, the pipeline companies actually make more money selling to Asia. Enbridge says it can earn $2-3 more per barrel selling to the Chinese. At 550,000 barrels a day - the estimate for one pipeline - that's a lot of extra cash.
I'm looking over a small heavy oil player in Canada that appears to trade at a deep discount to its underlying assets.
Another story that caught my eye was about wheat. I don't know if you've noticed, but wheat prices are up a third in just the last six weeks. The main culprit is too much rain or too little rain in Russia, Europe and Western Canada. So wheat prices are flying.
It seems like just two months ago, everybody was chipper about having bumper crops in all the grains. Now weather has suddenly gotten bad and wheat is up a third. You never know anything about crop prices until they hit the bin.
Longer term, though, we know we're going to need to grow more food. There are many ways to get there - fertilizer, irrigation, new acreage, etc.
Returning to the Vancouver conference, many of the most compelling investment ideas featured investments in oil, emerging markets, agriculture and water. My friend Rick Rule, a great resource investor and speculator, put in some bullish words for potash and water. He mentioned a few different "water plays" like PICO and Limoneira (LMNR).
In my presentation, I encouraged people to invest overseas. I also talked about the growing bulge of new consumers in emerging markets. Finally, I put in some kind words for farmland and agricultural markets.
In my workshop, I talked about a few specific stocks. The general idea was to present some stocks that did not require you to have much of an opinion about the economy. Lots of people hold tightly to such opinions. I asked how many people thought we would have a double-dip recession in the next two years. Almost everyone's hand went up. No one thought we'd avoid that fate.
Then I asked how many people had no idea. A few hands went up. Honest people, I say. I don't have any idea either. It's something that's unknowable. There are too many shifting variables. A strong conviction on a double dip is like having a strong conviction about next month's weather. It's a tough call.
But you don't really have to know the answer to the double-dip question to invest well. Too often, people think that a poor economy makes for a bad investing environment. But that's not always true. It depends on prices. Right now there are some interesting bargains out there.
Anyway, four of the stocks I mentioned are existing recommendations from Capital & Crisis:
Gulfport Energy (NASDAQ:GPOR) - An oil and gas company based in Louisiana. Besides solid producing assets in the US, it owns 131,000 net acres of oil sands in Canada via an investment in Grizzly Oil Sands. Recent transactions support valuations of $3,000-14,000 per acre. In per share terms, that's $9-42 per share for Gulfport, which trades for only $13.50. It's a stock greatly skewed to the upside with lots of asset value supporting the current stock price.
Loews Corp. (NYSE:L) - A conglomerate with interests in three publicly traded companies: Diamond Offshore, Boardwalk Pipeline and CNA Financial. The value of its stake in these three alone equals the stock price. You get the reset of the company free, which includes cash, HighMount (a natural gas company) and other investments. Total net asset value is $50 per share easy. The stock is $37.
FEMSA (NYSE:FMX) - A Mexican blue chip with interests in two publicly traded companies: Coca-Cola FEMSA and Heineken. FMX owns the third business outright. It is OXXO, a chain of convenience stores. The implied valuation for OXXO is about half publicly traded comparables. Net asset value for FMX is close to $60 per share. The stock is only $46.
Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ:FWLT) - A large engineering and construction firm. FWLT is flat-out cheap, trading at an earnings multiple of only 5-6 times net of cash. The stock is more than 70% off its high. The business is picking up again, yet the market values it as if earnings are about to fall off the table.
I could've gone on to mention more. But really, I don't think you have to have a positive view of the economy to own these names, which provide ready discounts to assets and/or potential earnings.
And I would urge all investors to continue seeking out the kinds of stocks that can deliver strong returns, even if the economy simply muddles along.
Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning Australia
Editor's Note: Chris is the editor of Capital and Crisis and Mayer's Special Situations, a monthly report that unearths unique and unconventional opportunities in smaller-cap stocks. In 2008, Chris authored Invest Like a Dealmaker: Secrets From a Former Banking Insider.
NIA Stock Pick
Price: $0.37
www.canadianzinc.com
Our new stock suggestion is Canadian Zinc Corp. currently on the Toronto exchange at $0.37 and on the OTCBB exchange at $0.358.
When the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market in 1980, driving the price of silver up to $50 per ounce, they were quietly getting ready to open their own silver mine. The mine the Hunt brothers were getting ready to open is called Prairie Creek. It was explored, developed and brought almost to completion, but never operated. After Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 20% and saved America from the inflationary crisis it was about to experience, the price of silver collapsed. The Hunt brothers were forced to file for bankruptcy and Prairie Creek was placed into receivership.
CZN now owns the rights to the Prairie Creek Silver, Lead & Zinc mine in Canada. CZN’s long-term aim is to bring the 100%-owned Prairie Creek Mine in the Mackenzie Mountains of the Northwest Territories into production at the earliest possible date. The mine, which has a fascinating 25 year history, is a silver and base metals property already in the advanced stages of development, with substantial resources of high-grade silver, zinc, and lead.
The Prairie Creek Mine is partially developed with an existing 1,000 tonne per day mill and related infrastructure. There are still fresh paint signs on the walls from the Hunt brothers in the 1980s. In fact, in one of the bathrooms, you can see where the tile people suddenly stopped working and left all the tools behind when the Hunt brothers were forced to abandon the project.
In 2006 and 2007, CZN carried out major programs at Prairie Creek including driving a new internal decline approximately 600 metres long which enabled a significant underground exploration and infill drilling program to occur. A total of $18.7 million was invested in Prairie Creek in 2006 and 2007.
A Technical Report dated October 12, 2007 indicates that the Prairie Creek Property hosts Measured and Indicated Resources of 5,840,329 tonnes grading 10.71% zinc, 9.90% lead, 161.12 grams silver per tonne and 0.326% copper. In addition, the report confirms a large Inferred Resource of 5,541,576 tonnes grading 13.53% zinc, 11.43% lead, 215 grams per tonne silver and 0.514% copper and additional exploration potential.
The Measured and Indicated Resource is now capable of supporting a mine life of at least 20 years at the planned 600 - 1,200 tonnes per day production rate. Although CZN holds permits for the exploration and development of the Prairie Creek Property, CZN does not have all the permits necessary to operate the mine. Recently, CZN applied to the Mackenzie Valley Land and Water Board for permits that will allow the operation of the mine.
Having a mill that is 90% complete and machinery that is still in good working condition gives CZN a tremendous advantage in getting this mine up and running. It would cost well over $100 million in today's dollars to build what they already have! The main thing holding CZN back from taking this property into production is the environmental impact board which should have a decision made by March 2011.
CZN also holds a 17% interest in Vatukoula Gold Mines plc. The Vatukoula Gold Mine located in Fiji recovered 38,402 ounces of gold during the nine months ended May 31, 2010. Vatukoula trades on the London Stock Exchange under ticker symbol VGM. CZN's shares in VGM are currently worth $18.2 million Canadian dollars.
CZN has 125,150,563 million shares outstanding giving it a market cap at $0.37 of $46.3 million Canadian dollars making it a truly undervalued situation. As of March 31, 2010, CZN had cash of $4.956 million, short term investments of $1.687 million, and no debt. On July 1, 2010, it was announced that CZN raised $2.5 million in a private placement at $0.40 per share.
If we combine CZN's cash and short-term investments with the recent private placement and estimate that CZN has burned around $1 million since the end of the 1Q, CZN probably has a cash position right now of somewhere around $8.1 million.
If we take CZN's current market cap of $46.3 million and subtract an estimated cash position of $8.1 million and the value of their 17% stake in VGM of $18.2 million, CZN’s Prairie Creek Property is currently being valued at only $20 million!
Remember, Prairie Creek already has about $100 million in infrastructure in place from the Hunt brothers' efforts and CZN has already spent another $18.7 million on exploration.
CZN plans to mine not only silver but also zinc. Because of recent gains in zinc prices, the U.S. government is now looking for ways to make coins without zinc. Congressman Ron Paul recently said, "We could not maintain the gold standard nor the silver standard. We could not maintain the copper standard, and now we cannot even maintain the zinc standard, paper money inevitably breeds inflation and destroys the value of currency.”
Sprott Asset Management is a major investor in CZN. As of December 31, 2009, they reported shared voting power of 17,652,033 shares. Sprott, just like CZN, is also a major shareholder in VGM.
NIA considers CZN to be a once in a lifetime opportunity to prosper during the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis.
Our legal disclaimer: http://inflation.us/legaldisclaimer.html
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Is Morocco Gold and Silver Mining Friendly?
GE gets in trouble
NYMEX-Crude retreats on consumer sentiment drop
Monday, July 26, 2010
The Ultimate Bubble
Thursday, July 22, 2010
The case for Gold ETF's
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Crude Drops on Surprise Inventory Gains
Federal Reserve ready to step in if economy falters again, Bernanke says
Exxon Leads Oil Companies to Design Spill Containment
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Monday, July 19, 2010
Stocks closed higher Monday
Is this why Tony Robbins got his own TV show?
China’s Stocks Rise on Policy Outlook, Automakers Earnings
Amazon.com says it's selling 80% more downloaded books than hardcovers
Friday, July 16, 2010
Stocks drop on weak consumer sentiment, bank earns
U.S. July consumer sentiment plummets
Regulators shut banks in Fla, Mich, SC
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
The 15 States With The Most Underwater Mortgages
10 Stupid Ways That Smart People Waste Money
G.M. to Guarantee Battery in Its Electric Car
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
U.S. stocks end sharply higher on upbeat earnings
Finance Overhaul Casts Long Shadow on the Plains
US gold ends higher, European debt concerns return
Monday, July 12, 2010
The 12-Step Get-Out-of-Debt Program
Anglo American should be broken up, says BoA Merrill
Mining giant Anglo American should be broken up so its South African business does not drag down other areas, a leading investment bank has recommended.
Oil falls to $75/bbl ahead of Q2 earnings, data
Friday, July 9, 2010
K-12 Education Subsidies
Fraud in the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance program illustrates the problem with governments being charitable with other people’s money.
The Low-Income Home Energy Assistance program provides $5 billion annually to the states, which distribute the funds to businesses, nonprofits, and homeowners. Unfortunately, the states do a poor job making sure the money isn't lost to fraud and abuse.
See here and here for the articles that detail what happened and the subsequent government investigation.
NASA's Feel Good Mission
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/talktojazeera/2010/07/201071122234471970.html
Are we spending $18 billion a year of taxpayer money on NASA simply to generate warm and fuzzy feelings?
Gambling, tennis while on the clock lands HUD employee in jail
Today I am just going to post a couple of articles that illustrate how inefficient the government actually is. This first one shows how we are never careful with someone else's money.
http://www.federaltimes.com/article/20100629/PERSONNEL03/6290305/1001
Would it take seven years for a senior manager at a private company to be fired if he goofed off and didn't go to work?
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Yet Another Student Loan?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2009/06/08/student-loan/
Though personally I think Dave Ramsey is an idiot when it comes to investing, I think that his advice on getting out of debt and avoiding debt is great advice.
The Macro Trumps All Else
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kupperman/july082010.html
If you read nothing else, read this article. I discusses truly how volatile things are now and some of the underlying reasons why.
Consumer borrowing down sharply in May
Consumer borrowing falls sharply in May, marking the 15th decline in the past 16 months
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Better Buy: Gold or Gold Miners?
What is better right now, buying physical gold or owning gold mining stocks? Click here to see what the Motley Fool has to say.
Wells Fargo terminates its consumer loan and subprime mortgage departments, slashes 38,000 jobs
Here is the article, and I could not agree more with this move.
Stocks Rally, The world rejoices.
Click Here for an article on the WSJ's take on today's Stock Jump, Here For Marketwatch.com's take, here for the Street's take.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Dow industrials climb 57 to break seven-day slide
Traders hunting for beaten-down stocks lift stocks; Dow gains 57 points but ends off its high
USDA: Corn, soybean conditions dip slightly
Forecast has some farmers worried; numbers just what the market expected
Now loans are for sale at Sam's Club
Commentary: Wal-Mart unit to offer Main Street businesses a lifeline
China Makes Haste Slowly Globalizing the Yuan
WRAPUP 3-Australia govt under new mine tax revenue attack
I love that the idiot at Deloitte said that the tax would remove uncertainty and boost investment. Guess what would boost investment even more and reduce uncertainty even more? Not doing the damn tax and putting a cap on it where it is at, or even better, reducing the tax.
Monday, July 5, 2010
UPDATE 1-Rio Tinto says Australia tax among world's highest
Ex-IMF Economist Rogoff Gloomy on China Property
Hidden losses may threaten EU stress tests
China Bashing Over Yuan Needs a Long Rest: Ronald I. McKinnon
Oil falls below $72 in Asia on fears of slowing economy
Friday, July 2, 2010
ALL BUSINESS: What to watch ahead of a GM IPO
ALL BUSINESS: GM's turnaround under way, but that doesn't mean its ready for an IPO
Entrepreneurship Helps Make America Great
Free enterprise matters
Gold Prices Squeeze Out Gains
Mixed June jobs data point to slow economic recovery
Thursday, July 1, 2010
BP spill may lead to higher oil prices: analysts
Costly new regulations could squeeze company resources
GE Distances Itself From CEO's Reported Comments
Pelosi: Unemployment Checks Fastest Way to Create Jobs
This logic is so stupid it needs no introduction